What do you predict is next first for Britain?

[Bobolink44]

I've been pondering Slaty-backed Gull for a while now and really think this one is due - their rate of occurence across the US eastern seaboard is staggering and probably represents the tip of the iceberg. I'll even put my neck out and say it will occur in 2008!!

Sibley has some amazing "what are the odds (http://sibleyguides.blogspot.com/2007/12/what-are-odds.html)" stories including his finding of 2 slaty-backeds this month

Good luck all you gullers in 08 :beer:

[Nathan Kipling]

A slaty-backed does sound possible and it would certainly be quite a bird, looking at it coming from the other direction the alternatives include semi-collared flycatcher which has already been recorded in Italy and Menetries' warbler which has already been recorded in Portugal.

:lovegulls:

[Red-eyed Video]

Slaty-backed may have seemed a better candidate than Glaucous-winged Gull & most certainly ahead of Long-billed Murrelet!

Black-tailed or Kelp Gull could also be on the cards but I think the next new bird could be a big surprise. If I let my heart rule my head I would go for Hoopoe Lark which could feel at home at Dungeness or Blakeney Point but in reality it may be another ocean wanderer. I'd often fantasised about Yellow-nosed Albatross while sea watching from Welsh watch points & a very experienced sea-watcher claimed Herald Petrel from Strumble Head but the record was never submitted.

I think I need to check out some of those Azores records and have a re-think. :cool:

[greenwithensbirder]

willet is long overdue.
eastern crowned warbler:smile: could be one,a few recent records from europe

though my moneys on something from the south west approaches,those scilly lads are as sharp as diamonds:cool:

[hughharrop]

I'd also go for Eastern Crowned Warbler - hopefully here in Shetland...

[andy22]

slaty-backed gull would be nice!
My moneys on either willet, Hoopoe lark or maybe a tricolored heron (As we have just had the great blue heron come across)? :p

andy

[greenwithensbirder]

I'd also go for Eastern Crowned Warbler - hopefully here in Shetland...

it will be spurn:smile: found by me,in the crown and anchor car park:laugh:

now if this comes true i will show my ass in tescos window

[Brian S]

So as well as Slaty-backed Gull, we now have Black-tailed and Kelp Gull, Willet, Tricolored Heron, Eastern Crowned Warbler, Orange-crowned Warbler, Semi-collared Flycatcher, Menetries's Warbler, and Hoopoe Lark. What others?

Gray's Grasshopper Warbler?
Upcher's Warbler - following in the footsteps of Olive-tree?
Imperial Eagle?

Just to be different, I will put my money on Grey-necked Bunting. The Dutch have had them so why not us - if they have not already occurred that is!

Brian S

[Matt Slaymaker]

i will go for...

Specy Eider from the north (Western isles somewhere)
Sibe Accentor from the east (Fair Isle)
Western Olivaceous Warbler from the south (in a mist net at Portland)
+ Black-throated Green Warbler from the west (St agnes)

[Josh Jones]

Black-throated Blue Warbler...

[AndyB]

Look like all good suggestions. I'd agree that Slaty-backed and Black-tailed Gulls are imminent. I read the American Woodcock shot in France couple of years ago has been accepted. Imagine the panic one of those found on Lower Moors would cause!

It's not a first but due to the brevity of stay, mega-ness of bird and the time since the first bird was recorded, I also suspect an overwintering Varied Thrush will reappear pretty soon and unblock itself on most birders' lists. They really are becoming more regular in winter on the east coast and the recent Iceland bird shows they can hop across the Atlantic easily enough. Keep putting out those apples! And just so you have it handy, should one appear in your backgarden this winter, here's the Surfbirds Gallery of Varied Thrushes including the 1982 Nanquidno bird (http://www.surfbirds.com/cgi-bin/gallery/search2.cgi?species=varied+thrush) :beer:

http://www.surfbirds.com/media/gallery_photos/20050205093321.jpg
Varied Thrush, Newfoundland, Long Pond, Avalon Peninsula January 30, 2005 © Bruce Mactavish

[AndyB]

Mark Szantyr posted some nice shots of the Mass Slaty-backed Gull on N. American Stop Press (http://www.surfbirds.com/cgi-bin/gallery/display.cgi?gallery=gallery10). There's been quite a few east coast birds this year. Surprisingly few on west coast and still unrecorded in southern California. Next stop, your local inland UK gull roost!

:lovegulls:

[wraithy]

I rather fancy a PALLAS'S GULL found on the Patch at Dungeness,a 2nd year KELP GULL was seen and photographed there a few years ago but was rejected by the BBRC:,shame, as it was authenticated by birders from New Zealand and South Africa.:lovegulls:

[gabrieljamie]

I know not a new species as such. But surely Asian Buff-bellied Pipit is a possibility.

[Josh Jones]

I know not a new species as such. But surely Asian Buff-bellied Pipit is a possibility.

And arguably should be a species in its own right....

[forktail]

Eastern-crowned Warbler

at Waxham or Sea Palling/Eccles

F.

[john c]

Let's not overlook Black Woodpecker - having heard them last weekend in a wood virtually in sight of the Kent coast they can't be discounted. Mind you, I suspect it'd need signed affadavits from at least two serving members of the rarities committee and photos authenticated by a third before it was accepted!

John

[andy22]

John that is a very good point you have made. I left a post on here talking about willit and some more species which i think will be found next but i never thought of one of the most obvious one's! One day (hopefully soon) one will fly across!

andy

[Limeybirder]

keep checking those flocks of Chiffchaffs and Goldcrests for an Orange-crowned Warbler. Willet is long overdue as well.:beer:

[ruahanp]

I agree with John C that Black Woody sounds most probable but it has been so for years now but it still hasn't shown its cheeky red skull-cap this side of the stream, has it (or has it?)? Thinking of all the "outsiders" that have beaten BW onto the list, my outsider (at 500/1) is Western Rock Nuthatch, probably at Portland Bill.

[Bonsaibirder]

Having predicted the Long-billed Murrelet ! (http://www.birdforum.net/showpost.php?p=642838&postcount=166) (sorry I couldn't resist showing off:cool:) I feel like I can rest on my laurels, however here are some more suggestions:

Olivaceous (Neotropic) Cormorant
Marbled Godwit
Spoon-billed Sandpiper
that mystery plover from Malaysia

but actually I agree on Slaty-backed Gull to be next.

Cheers

[Hotspur]

My feeling is that it will something a bit wacky and left field like Western Reef-Egret

[chris butterworth]

Spoonbilled Sand has to be at the top of my list, but what about Spotbilled Duck, White-winged Scoter, Oriental Plover, Pintailed Snipe, Grey headed Gull or Oriental Cuckoo ( the last 3 are almost shoo in's!)
Chris

[birdboybowley]

My feeling is that it will something a bit wacky and left field like Western Reef-Egret

There's already been one.. :laugh: No way the Stanpit bird was just a 'funny' Little Egret!!

[REDBACKEDSHRIKE66]

:certifiable:Spur winged lapwing?!:certifiable:

[Rafi]

:certifiable:Maybe a

[Marcus]

:certifiable:Spur winged lapwing?!:certifiable:

http://www.kentos.org.uk/Photographs/97SpurwingedPloverDF.htm

[JanJ]

Slaty-backed Gull is certainly not impossible for Britain. However the identification process might not be that easy - if not the text book adult - where all characters are seen well and photographed.

Myself are awaiting Swedens first Pallas´s Gull, preferable at my home patch Ottenby.
Two old Swedish records was rejected, on good grounds.

JanJ

[andy22]

Having just had the citril finch... there is a possibility of a snowfinch being found? norfolk or kent? hopefully!

cheers andy

[Josh Jones]

There have been one or two claims of Snowfinch before, but never confirmed. I would have thought they would be even less likely than Citril Finch as well..!

This Citril is so frustrating. Turned up in the middle of exams and causing unnecessary stress. Looks like its going to have to be the one that gets away.

[Alex Lees]

There have been one or two claims of Snowfinch before, but never confirmed. I would have thought they would be even less likely than Citril Finch as well..!


Hi Josh

Citril Finch is perhaps less unlikely than many may have thought, this culled from Förschler & Kalko (2007) Jnl Biogeog.:

Mainland citril finches are known to migrate considerable distances (Yeatman-Berthelot, 1991; Cramp & Perrins, 1994; Zink & Bairlein, 1995; Fornasari et al., 1998). Birds from Garmisch-Partenkirchen (German Alps) have been recovered in the Cevennes and Mont Ventoux areas, about 600 km south-west of their breeding areas (Bezzel & Brandl, 1988). Recent observations of wintering birds in southern Spain (Benoit & Märki, 2004), and the capture of citril finches in the Spanish exclave of Ceuta in North Africa (Navarrete et al., 1991), confirm that they are able to migrate longer distances. Occasional records in the Balearic Islands (Cramp & Perrins, 1994) show that these movements can also include to Mediterranean islands. The establishment of a small population of the sedentary white-winged snowfinch (Montifringilla nivalis) of the Alps in the Corsican mountains (Thibault & Bonaccorsi, 1999) also demonstrates that settlement by montane birds with only slight migrational tendencies may occur from time to time over longer distances.

A Snowfinch was collected on Heligoland on March 30th 1849 (http://elibrary.unm.edu/sora/Auk/v012n04/p0322-p0346.pdf)and another one apparently seen in autumn, it is thus a potential vagrant to the UK, but is probably a '100-year bird'.

Good luck with the stress....

cheers

Alex

[W. Ruskin Butterfield]

Is not the White-winged Snowfinch along with Moustached Warbler the only two Hasting's Rareities not to have been re-admitted to the British lst since being taken off in 1962? Not very PC of Elliot Coues to mangle the quote from the Koran in the SORA article you cited!

[Alex Lees]

Is not the White-winged Snowfinch along with Moustached Warbler the only two Hasting's Rareities not to have been re-admitted to the British lst since being taken off in 1962? Not very PC of Elliot Coues to mangle the quote from the Koran in the SORA article you cited!

yep, apart from (potential) splits like Cape Verde Little Shearwater, Masked Wagtail and birds that never even fooled the committee 1st time round like Brown Noddy. As has been iterated before, top marks to the Hastings Crew for assessing vagrancy potential.....

[Alex Lees]

There have been one or two claims of Snowfinch before, but never confirmed. I would have thought they would be even less likely than Citril Finch as well..!

...should also add that the Snowfinch record (currently D) from Lakenheath, Suffolk, June 1969–June 1972 is being reassessed.

[beltonbirder]

I would really love Black Woodpecker. I used to do a coastal patch daily. One day another birder claimed a Black woodpecker on the beach where I would have gone to had I not been in be with a pretty woman.

Sheesh

[Archie Archer]

Black-throated Blue Warbler...

Worm-eating Warbler in a Cornish Valley.....pleeeeeeeeeease..... I'll do anything!

[phyllosc]

Clearly, some of you have forgotten the Black Woodpecker in Ambridge not that many years ago. I didn't go for it myself but I remember it was well twitched.

As for the next new bird for Britain: Forest Wagtail for me please!

Dave C
Suffolk

[Nathan Kipling]

Rare Bird Alert reports a possible semi-collared flycatcher today at Waxham, Norfolk. I wonder how easy it's going to be to get it accepted.

[AndyB]

That was one of your predictions Nathan. :notworthy:

Tough one to get through a rarities committee I should imagine.