What will the next new ABA birds be?

[cnybirder]

What new species are most likely to be recorded in the ABA area?

Here are a few that I am surprised haven't been recorded yet (that are most likely in Newfoundland or other Northeastern locations):
Blackcap
Common Chiffchaff
European Robin
Rook
Goldcrest
Garder Warbler
Common Wood Pigeon
Whinchat
Common Redstart
Barred Warbler
Hooded Crow
Pied Flycatcher
Scaly Thrush
Meadow Pipit

Caribbean Martin
Goosander
Southern Grey Shrike
West Indian Whistling-Duck

What do you guys think?

[MichaelF]

Can't see short-distance migrants like Blackcap, Chiffchaff, Robin, Rook, Goldcrest, Hooded Crow, Meadow Pipit, or Southern Grey Shrike making it across.

Rook and Hooded Crow could make it ship-assisted, if that's permitted by the AOU.

Goosander you already have, it's AOU-listed as Common Merganser ;-)

[Johnny X]

Hooded Crow has already made it to Canada!

[cnybirder]

Can't see short-distance migrants like Blackcap, Chiffchaff, Robin, Rook, Goldcrest, Hooded Crow, Meadow Pipit, or Southern Grey Shrike making it across.

Rook and Hooded Crow could make it ship-assisted, if that's permitted by the AOU.


Well, Blackcap looks like it can be a long range migrant though not all populations are. There are 2387 records for it in Iceland and at least a few in Greenland. Rook has 632 records in Iceland and at least one in Greenland. Chiffchaff have 1106 records in Iceland but none in Greenland. Robin has 860 in Iceland. From what I can see using Birds of Europe all of the the ones you mentioned as short-distance migrants are long-distance migrants in the northern parts of their range and most have high numbers of records in Iceland. Southern Grey Shrike has been recorded in Bermuda so I would think it could come the extra 500 miles or so.



Goosander you already have, it's AOU-listed as Common Merganser ;-)

Forgot about that! Don't know what I was thinking on that one.

[MichaelF]

Not sure. I should have clarified, not going long distance over water. They may migrate fairly long distances, but mainly over land where they can stop to rest and feed regularly. The distance to Iceland (1,000 km) is a lot less than across the Atlantic, more similar to the shorter water distances in Europe (North Sea [600 km], Baltic, Mediterranean [700km]). So they can put on fat for maybe a 1,000 or 1,500 km flight, but not for a 3,000 km transatlantic flight, and particularly not against the winds (you don't ever get a run of transatlantic easterlies the way one does get strong transatlantic westerlies that can get birds across in just 2-3 days).

Virtually all the American passerines that occur over here are ones that do non-stop transcaribbean flights (2,000-2,500 km) in the autumn, so they have evolved a need to put on much larger fat reserves than anything over here does. And they have the advantage of following wind assistance.

If you can get hold of it, have a read of the article on transatlantic vagrancy in the September issue of British Birds (Norman Elkins, Further thoughts on the transatlantic vagrancy of landbirds to Britain and Ireland. BB 101: 458-477, 2008). That should help see the sort of difficulties birds face.

I'd bet that Bermuda S Grey Shrike was ship-assisted. The species is almost wholly non-migratory in Europe (the Asian steppe subspecies does migrate though).

[AndyB]

Good thread. If Corncrake, Red-footed Falcon, Marsh Harrier and Whiskered Tern can make it, I guess any long distance Western Palearctic migrant is a candidate for the eastern seaboard USA. How about Honey Buzzard?

In terms of ship-assisted, presumably Jackdaw and Hooded Crow came that way (here's the crow link (http://surfbirds.com/forum/showthread.php?t=3601)) so Woodpigeon, European Robin etc are not impossible. Redwing and Fieldfare seem to make it regularly enough and don't forget about that Song Thrush last year.

However, I'd probably be looking in the other direction and to Asia and what would most likely to be found on those Alaskan islands. I've actually lost track of what hasn't made it yet but you could probably put together a pretty mouth watering list of potentials. There's still some buntings, warblers, flycatchers and thrushes yet to be found in those boneyards and gulleys.

[Vermfly]

That not a single Mexican or South American species was mentioned as the next possible ABA bird. Especially since I think the last 3 new ABA birds were Pine Flycatcher (Mexican species), Black-headed Siskin (Mexican) and Crowned-Slaty Flycatcher (Austral migrant). They also had a Sungrebe in NM just this fall.

[cnybirder]

That not a single Mexican or South American species was mentioned as the next possible ABA bird. Especially since I think the last 3 new ABA birds were Pine Flycatcher (Mexican species), Black-headed Siskin (Mexican) and Crowned-Slaty Flycatcher (Austral migrant). They also had a Sungrebe in NM just this fall.

I agree with you that central/south American species are more likely (even on the east coast) than European birds however I didn't list any because I didn't get a chance to look into which ones would be more likely. There is much more information on European birds than South American so its hard to tell what would be more likely.

Apparently the Pine Flycatcher was not a Pine at all but a Least Flycatcher (http://chrisbenesh.com/Chris_Benesh_Site/Choke_Canyon_Flycatcher.html).

[AndyB]

A lot of people travelled some great distances to see that flycatcher for "insurance" purposes.

[AndyB]

The hits keep coming from the Southwest. A Grey-collared Becard in AZ

Michael Retter's What's Next for Texas (http://www.aba.org/birding/v41n2p66.pdf) got the Becard right

[mafting]

Re the Hooded Crow in Canada, I thin k there's a large element of doubt about its origins. They have been imported in the recent past and (I think) escaped.

Rook is a short and long-term migrant (some come to Britain from Russia), so I think if lapwing can make it to the US then so can Rook. And Woodpigeon. Is European Woodcock on the US list?

Radiotracking of Honey Buzzards on migration from the UK to Africa showed that one got swept out into the Atlantic a few years ago. It went past and then round the Azores and then most of the way back to Africa before it ditched in the sea. So given the right weather system (admittedly an unusual one) then I'm sure one could make it. One wonders how often Ospreys cross the Atlantic eiter way, seeing as one was radiotracked doing a similar thing as the Honey Buzzard last year (past the Azores). It's probably not uncommon for North American Ospreys to get caught in eastbound Atlantic weather systems and taken towards Europe.

Ship-assisted Goldcrest has to be a good bet too.

But don't most Eurasian vagrants come from the west and turn up on the Aleutians and Alaska? Weather systems are not really conducive to getting birds west across the Atlantic on a regular basis.

[Vermfly]

The hits keep coming from the Southwest. A Grey-collared Becard in AZ

Michael Retter's What's Next for Texas (http://www.aba.org/birding/v41n2p66.pdf) got the Becard right

I'm not sure if he got it right yet. I always hate when people assume an escaped cage bird but the pictures show a great amount of wear on the wings and tail of the Becard. I don't know if an escaped cage bird can be ruled out for this record.:cry:

[antshrike]

I'd like to make a couple of points. People keeps seedeaters and frugivores as cage birds and not insectivores like a Gray-collared Becards. I don't think there will be much discussion of provenance of this bird. It occured in proper habitat and as mentioned was expected sometime. I was hoping to get the first one here in south Texas.

Secondly, the Black-headed Siskin was rejected by the Texas Birds Record Committee and the Pine Flycatcher has been sent around for another vote. It's doubful these will ever be added to the ABA list.

[mafting]

I'd like to make a couple of points. People keeps seedeaters and frugivores as cage birds and not insectivores like a Gray-collared Becards. I don't think there will be much discussion of provenance of this bird. It occured in proper habitat and as mentioned was expected sometime. I was hoping to get the first one here in south Texas.

Secondly, the Black-headed Siskin was rejected by the Texas Birds Record Committee and the Pine Flycatcher has been sent around for another vote. It's doubful these will ever be added to the ABA list.

Insectivores are very commonly kept in captivity, and are known as softbills. If it can fit in an aviary, then people will keep them, be it gulls, waders or kingfishers.

Here is a listing of softbill species on an aviculture website: http://www.softbillsforsale.com/species-all.asp

Cinnamon Becard is listed here, although none currently available: http://www.softbillsforsale.com/photogallery-list.asp?page=12

[admin]

From what I hear in the rumor mill, the Pine Flycatcher calls have been verified as Least Flycatcher...

[AndyB]

Congrats antshrike! Looks like your White-crested Elaenia got added to the ABA list. Surely you've used up your good fortune to add any more firsts?

[birdingcraft]

Good thread. If Corncrake, Red-footed Falcon, Marsh Harrier and Whiskered Tern can make it, I guess any long distance Western Palearctic migrant is a candidate for the eastern seaboard USA. How about Honey Buzzard?

In terms of ship-assisted, presumably Jackdaw and Hooded Crow came that way (here's the crow link (http://surfbirds.com/forum/showthread.php?t=3601)) so Woodpigeon, European Robin etc are not impossible. Redwing and Fieldfare seem to make it regularly enough and don't forget about that Song Thrush last year.

However, I'd probably be looking in the other direction and to Asia and what would most likely to be found on those Alaskan islands. I've actually lost track of what hasn't made it yet but you could probably put together a pretty mouth watering list of potentials. There's still some buntings, warblers, flycatchers and thrushes yet to be found in those boneyards and gulleys.

There are such massive numbers of Wood Pigeons- a good, long distance flier- that it seems like that species has a pretty good chance of showing up some time.
Speaking of Honey Buzzards, one of the top experts at field identification in North America (who will remain anonymous) caught a glimpse of a bird that may have been Honey Buzzard flying over Delaware during fall migration some years ago.
I didn't know about the siskin- about time that one showed up!
As for birds from south of the border, I think it's a toss up among Tawny-collared Nightjar, an accepted record of Amazon Kingfisher, Lineated Woodpecker, Black Thrush, and Blue-gray Tanager.

[Gavin Bieber]

It is worth noting that the most productive source for land-based "firsts" for the ABA area has recently been the outposts of the Bering Sea in fall. In the last decade alone Gambell has produced records for Sedge, Willow, Yellow-browed and Pallas' Warblers, Lesser Whitethroat, Spotted FLycatcher and Yellow-browed Bunting. And the Pribilofs have scored with Brown Hawk-Owl and Solitary Snipe. Any discussion of the most likely new ABA birds should certainly include species from the far east! In addition the pelagic waters of North America certainly hold a number of potential new species as well!

[armchair birder]

I've often wondered about the Imperial Woodpecker. If you are going to dream then dream big! There is supposed archeological evidence for this species being in the southwestern US; design on pottery or etc. Then there is a possible sighting in the Chiricahuas (see link):

http://www.ocellated.com/2005/11/07/imperial-woodpecker-report/

[Vermfly]

I would think Lineated Woodpecker would be more likely. It could definitely show up in Texas or SE AZ.

[armchair birder]

I would think Lineated Woodpecker would be more likely. It could definitely show up in Texas or SE AZ.
From what I've read in my rather old Mexican bird books, the Lineated does not come close to Arizona. But the lower Rio Grande valley would seem a likely place. Maybe global warming will speed the day. As for the Imperial, it is history. The White-striped Woodcreeper is reportedly a candidate, as it has been seen within 50 miles or so of Arizona.

[Vermfly]

Yeah I went back and looked at the range after the post. Lineated for sure could show in Texas. White-striped Woodcreeper seems to be on a lot of experts Next 10 birds list to show up in AZ.

[birdingcraft]

There is at least one unsubstantiated sighting of Lineated Woodpecker from the Lower Rio Grande. I expect one will turn up there and be photograghed some day.